THE 90th MINUTE EPL DFS BREAKDOWN – Wednesday, 12/4/2019

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We have another midweek EPL slate; this one quite different than Tuesday’s with a full six games on the docket.  Due to lack of time, this article is going to be an abbreviated version of an EPL DFS Breakdown.  However, it will still be packed with information you need to conquer the slate.

FWD/MID Analysis:

I haven’t been a proponent of paying up for Sadio Mane ($22) lately, but this seems like a place we can target him.  He faces Everton who has been a poor defensive team all season, especially on the road.  Liverpool (-1.5) are large favorites Wednesday.  Mane has three goals in four games and he’s -105 to score and make that four goals in five games.  Mo Salah ($19) has better odds to score in this one at -115, but I can’t trust him lately with his injuries and inconsistencies.  Even for $3 more, Mane is the preferred play here.

Jamie Vardy ($22) came through for me on Sunday with a 2nd half goal to give him six straight games with a goal.  He and Leicester (-1.5) draw another home matchup against last place Watford.  They’ve allowed 3rd most goals in the league (2.0 per game), so Vardy is in a great spot to extend his streak.  He’ll be a viable play until he cools off.  I don’t like the Vardy + James Maddison ($17) combo as much as I did on Sunday with a full slate this time around.  However, this is another plus matchup for them putting the mini stack in play yet again.

Harry Kane ($21) and the rest of Tottenham (even my boy Son) are a tough sell on Wednesday.  Manchester United doesn’t allow many goals at home, and there are better ways to spend your money.  For the opposition, I do have some interest in Marcus Rashford ($19).  While Tottenham have been playing well under Mourinho, they’re allowing 2.0 goals per game under him.  He doesn’t have great odds to score at +130, but it is the highest on United.  I’m not really that interested in this game from a fantasy perspective.

The most likely goal scorer on this slate, Tammy Abraham ($18), might not even play due to injury.  However, with Chelsea (-1.5) technically our slate’s largest favorite, there are some viable plays here.  Chelsea did not look good at all without Abraham, and a few other notable starters on the bench, last Saturday.  They’re goal production can come from a good number of places which makes them a little more difficult to trust.  However, this is a great matchup at home against a Villa squad allowing over two goals per game on the road.  I’m most comfortable rostering Willian ($16) and N’Golo Kante ($12), but you can get away with others at low ownership on this slate.

While Chelsea are the largest favorite they aren’t without their own issues, especially on defense.  Jack Grealish ($17) has been really bright lately for Villa.  His combination of goal upside and peripherals are incredibly valuable on FanDuel.  Grealish is the clear top target from Villa.  I’m a little worried that Chelsea controls too much of the possession which won’t allow Grealish many chances in front of goal.  Save him for large field GPPs.

Danny Ings ($18) is really hard not to like right now.  He has scored a goal in six of his last eight EPL games only being held off the score sheet in tough matchups against Manchester City and Leicester.  He draws a great matchup against the 2nd worst defense in the league on Wednesday.  He’s never very chalky on small slate, so I can only imagine how overlooked he will be on this full slate.  Pairing him with James Ward-Prowse ($17) is a great GPP strategy.

Joao Moutinho ($14) is probably the first place I would go for Wolves exposure.  West Ham is a good matchup for Wolves attackers.  Raul Jimenez ($18) is a solid play, but he’s pricey and much more goal dependent.  I’d rather have Moutinho’s floor and save $4.  He’s averaging 25.0 fantasy points per game over the last five games, which is far better than his season average.

Marvelous Nakamaba ($12) is my preferred value play.  If you have read some of my EPL DFS Breakdowns this season you already know his story.  When he plays, he’s a peripheral monster.  His price began at minimum which was criminally cheap and has his rose to $12.  I’m still interested in him though especially in this game which has a slate-high over/under of 3.5.  Chelsea forces opponents to make many defensive plays which will lead to good peripherals for him.

Wilfred Ndidi ($12) is a similar play.  His best attribute is his consistent ability to gather peripherals.  He has more upside than Nakamba, but I like the game environment less for him.

I want to get some Norwich exposure in here because they’re facing the only defense that is worse than their own.  Southampton have given up the most goals in the league (2.3 per game).  I don’t mind taking a shot at Teemu Pukki ($16) but I think Kenny McLean ($12) is the way to go to maximize your value.  He’s averaging 21.7 fantasy points in his last three games.  He’s in a good spot to go for 20+ again.  Onel Hernandez ($11) can be your Norwich value piece as well if you need the extra dollar.

DEF Analysis:

It’s unwise to trust Virgil van Dijk ($16) for two goals again this game, but I am right back to Ricardo Pereira ($16).  He had his normal 20 fantasy points worth of peripherals and he finally showed us some of that attacking upside he had last season with an assist.  He really only has three dud games in 14 tries this season so you’re paying for his consistency.  This is a good matchup for him to do some extra attacking as well.  He’s one of the better defenders to spend up for.

Another good defender to splurge on is Trent Alexander-Arnold ($16).  He’s slightly more susceptible to down games than Pereira, however this matchup at home against Everton should not be one of those spots.  He has as high of an upside as any defender on this slate.  After just one rough away game in which all of Liverpool struggled, Andrew Robertson ($13) saw a $2 price decline.  He had four of his last five games over 20 fantasy points until last Saturday, and this is a great bounce back spot.  The price tag is way too cheap.

There are a handful of attractive plays in the mid-range like Caglar Soyuncu ($13), Matt Targett ($13), Yerry Mina ($11), Christoph Zimmerman ($11), and Angelo Ogbonna ($11) but I think people will be looking for more punts.

One such punt is Emerson ($10).  He was about the only good thing from Chelsea in a fantasy standpoint last game.  He put up 20.7 points on the back of three chances created and other defensive peripherals.  This is an even better matchup for Chelsea’s attacking defender, and I’m fully expecting another 20+ point game from him (or maybe that’s my fan bias).

I mentioned Sam Byram ($9) as a viable value defender over the weekend.  He only scored 11.7 fantasy points, but he still outscored his price tag.  He’s still only $9 on this slate and he’s shown upside as good as anyone you can find for this cheap.

I definitely want exposure to Aston Villa defenders as Chelsea is top five at allowing clearances, interceptions, and tackles.  Tyrone Mings ($14) is the top defender to target, but he’ll also cost you a little more than you’re probably comfortable paying.  It is unfortunate that Frederic Guilbert ($12) is suspended because he would be my go-to.  Ahmed El Mohamady ($9) should start in his place.  He hasn’t been fantasy relevant all year and is a risky play even given the matchup.  That leaves us with Ezri Konsa Ngoyo ($9) or a finally-healthy Bjorn Engels ($11).  If Engels starts, fire him up.  If not, take a pick between El Mohamady or Konsa Ngoyo for value.

GK Analysis:

Kasper Schmeichel ($14) disappointed big time over the weekend, but he should not concede again at home.  Watford are by the far league’s lowest scoring team with only nine goals in 14 games.  Look for Schmeichel to redeem himself on Wednesday.

I like Kepa Arizzabalaga’s ($11) floor and price on this slate.  He will get some save points, and with Chelsea the largest favorite, a win bonus should be headed his way too.  Aston Villa have scored a decent number of away goals, but Chelsea’s home defense has been stout.  They’ve only allowed one goal in their last four home EPL games.  If they can keep a clean sheet, Kepa is looking at a monster game.

Another GK with a high ceiling on this slate is Rui Patricio ($13).  Like Schmeichel, he let me down Saturday.  West Ham is struggling to score right now and this won’t be an easy road game for them.  It’s a similar story to Kepa here.  He will get some save points, and win bonus is possible (although less likely than Kepa’s odds).  If Wolverhampton can keep a clean sheet at home, Patricio will boom.

Thanks for reading this EPL DFS Breakdown and good luck to anyone playing.  Check back Thursday for more EPL content!