Who NOT to play 1/28/2017

The Memphis Grizzlies team (Other than Mike Conley)

The five starters average about 101 points per game.  Tonight Vegas has them going for about 90.5 (10%+ less).   Unless there is a starter randomly sitting and a min priced backup is set to play 35+ minutes, avoid this team tonight.  All of the DVP’s positions 2-5 are highly negative as well OTHER than the PG spot.  George Hill is close to a neutral DVP which puts Conley in play.   Hill has given up 55 to Lillard, 70 to Russ, 58 last week to Payton 40 to Teague.  I think people will look at this Vegas total and stay clear- So I think Conley will be a very low owned (10% or lower) guy tonight who should make value.  Conley Projects at 35 tonight on a 7k FD price and just hit that number Jan 9 against Utah.

Neon Dion Waiters

I think the public is going to fall in love with his game log (3 of the last 4 he’s scored 40+ on FD).   While he could go off again I’d like to point out that this is mostly a factor of his PT increasing.  This season he’s averaged .83 FP/min and in the last 10 he’s only at .9.  While this IS a nice increase, I think tonight it comes crashing to a halt.  He goes up against the slow paced grind it out Detroit Pistons and Marcus Morris who has a DVP that is 11% better based off of his opponents fantasy points per minute.  Waiters is a clear fade for me tonight.

Demarcus Cousins 

I think Cousins will be a popular play tonight.  On paper Roy Hibbert can’t stick with him and Marvin Williams is too small.  MW has actually done a good job against opposing 4’s and stands a good chance to hold Demarcus below his season averages.  Take note that whenever predicting against a super star, there’s always a chance he’ll go for 74, but for us tonight, we’re staying off.  We project him for 45 on FD on a 10.6k salary, it’s a pass.

sactown

 

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