MLB DFS Picks and Pivots:
Welcome back to everyone with another FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we kill some quarantine downtime by diving into the MLB DFS simulations that FanDuel is offering each and every day.
Unlike some of the other simulations we have seen during this time, these FanDuel simulations for MLB have a bit more structure and FanDuel has broken it all down for us here but the basics are as follows:
1. Starting pitchers and batting orders have already been set with no pinch-hitting, so all hitters will get a full game of at-bats.
2. Each plate appearance is simulated by numberFire and accounts for things such as park factors, platoon splits of Home/Road or Righty/Lefty and individual skill and match-up.
3. A pitcher’s volume will be based on “dynamic pitch counts” which means you are likely taking on added unknown risk for arms that did not have defined starting roles in 2019.
What have we seen so far?
Yesterday’s slates were underwhelming from a pitching perspective and it was not overly surprising to see the offenses carry the load on both slates as arms like Zach Plesac and Jordan Zimmerman led the early slate while no arm was able to top 50 fantasy points on the Main Slate. The one noticeable trend from yesterday was how much more stacks were able to differentiate lineups in GPP’s, especially on the main slate as the Marlins had a slate high 10 runs and winning GPP lineups used a FanDuel max of 4 Miami batters. I firmly believe, the more these simulations take place, the more that traditional stacking will pay dividends in these massive field tournaments.
Today’s MLB DFS Slate:
We get another day of split slates and that means 10 free MLB DFS lineups on FanDuel to help build your bankroll!
Unlike yesterday, I think these are slates that demand we pay up for pitching, especially on the early slate where we have Mike Clevinger ($10.5K) at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. Considering that NumberFire takes home/road splits into account, we need to remember that Clevinger at home last season was simply absurd, sporting a 35.8% K rate which among all arms with at least 50 IP, was third in baseball behind only Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale. On a one pitcher site like FanDuel, Clevinger is a priority play with massive K upside will be in all of my lineups today.
When building around our bats, one thing I have not really thought about is how FanDuel takes into account weather in these simulations. I bring this up because today we have a day game in Wrigley Field and as any MLB DFS player knows, the wind in Wrigley can make for DFS fireworks and if you click on the weather page, it shows the wind blowing out at 11 MPH which could turn this game between the Cubs and Cardinals into a slugfest.
Miles Mikolas and Tyler Chatwood are both low K arms so putting the ball in play in a wind-aided Wrigley could pay big dividends and I think game stacking this spot is a great way to go all-in to try and gain any edge we can in this massive GPP style contest. The nice part about this game is you have power bats across the board with Paul Goldschmidt (who has been the best hitter thus far in these sims with 9 HR’s), Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Paul DeJong.
Mixing and matching game stacks here is easily doable as outside of Goldy at $3.8K, the rest of the bats are more than reasonable to fit alongside a Clevinger based build. These teams correlate well from a position perspective as you can flip/flop at almost every spot – between Goldy/Rizzo at first, Bryant/Carpenter at 3B and DeJong/Baez at SS – and with 5 free lineups to play with, it makes it easy to mass multi-enter by hand – all while staying in the same game.
Enjoy the weekend all – keep building those bankrolls and most important – STAY SAFE!