MLB DFS Picks and Pivots:
Welcome back to everyone with another FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we kill some quarantine downtime by diving into the MLB DFS simulations that FanDuel is offering each and every day.
Unlike some of the other simulations we have seen during this time, these FanDuel simulations for MLB have a bit more structure and FanDuel has broken it all down for us here but the basics are as follows:
1. Starting pitchers and batting orders have already been set with no pinch-hitting, so all hitters will get a full game of at-bats.
2. Each plate appearance is simulated by numberFire and accounts for things such as park factors, platoon splits of Home/Road or Righty/Lefty and individual skill and match-up.
3. A pitcher’s volume will be based on “dynamic pitch counts” which means you are likely taking on added unknown risk for arms that did not have defined starting roles in 2019.
What have we seen so far?
I have to say, I am weirdly having some serious success on these simulated MLB slates and am slowly building up a nice little bankroll with FanDuel cash to play once real MLB DFS does come back – or maybe it will be NFL at this rate – but I will be ready regardless.
If you stick to playing these each day, you will start to see trends develop with offenses that remain hot on a daily basis and the pricing on the hitters really is not changing all that much on a day to day basis, so you can apply the same build logic for multiple days as a result. Without “game logs” to anchor to, players don’t have the luxury of easily tracking this so it gives those of us willing to take a few minutes to look back at our rosters and trends, a serious advantage.
One of the biggest things I have noticed recently is that stacking is paying off and it doesn’t seem like a popular route (yet). Last night as an example, I stacked the Mets (11 runs) and Indians (7 runs) and paired them with Trevor Bauer and cashed with ease across all 5 lineups as I mixed and matched 4v4 Mets and Indians stacks. This route has basically landed me in one of two places each slate – I either cash all five or am below the cash line entirely – but considering these are LARGE field GPP’s that cost you nothing, I stand firm in that stacking two offenses each day will pay off in the long run.
Today’s MLB DFS Slate:
The early slate pitching is frankly, underwhelming, and as a result, I think you are best suited to build backwards with your batters first and “see what is left” at pitcher.
I mentioned locking in on trends and one thing I have noticed, the Indians are like simulation cheat codes and I am going to have 4 Indians in my builds every day until they give me a reason not to. The best part about the Indians is the pricing mixture, as you can lock in pricey plays like Lindor/J-Ram at $3.8K each but you can easily balance that with a cheap 2B in Cesar Hernandez ($2.6K) and OF’s in Franmil Reyes and Oscar Mercado who have demonstrated pop in these simulations each and every day.
The other option you have in building your lineups is to look at the pitchers and sort low to high, to find the arms that FanDuel is saying to stay away from and not shockingly, Jordan Zimmermann gets that honor as the cheapest SP on the early slate against the Angels. Where the Indians are “balanced” from a price perspective, the Angles become a premium investment with bats like Trout, Rendon and Ohtani but again with no arm I feel like I need to pay up for – you can easily stack up the bats here and work your way into the arms.
One option – punt pitcher entirely with two arms going against each other with Derek Holland and Asher Wojiechowski as the Pirates and Orioles face off in Baltimore. Woj pitched a simulation 5 days ago against the Cardinals, putting up 36 fantasy point, 5.6x value as a result of 6K’s in 6 innings of 2 run ball. If you can get a similar output today considering his price went down from $6.4K to $5.8K, you could get one of the best PP/$ plays on the slate.
The main slate is much of the same as I am not interested in paying a premium for Patrick Corbin against the Dodgers loaded lineup, so I will work backwards with bats and this time, will go back to another team that seemingly pays off every single day in the White Sox. Today they get to keep their hot streak going with a match-up against Homer Bailey and the pricing on these guys is laughably cheap – you can stack 1-7 in this lineup with Anderson, Moncada, Abreu, Grandal, Eloy, E5 and Mazara and not a single batter costs more than $3.3K. The fact that guys like E5, Abreu and Grandal are all identically priced as well – makes it easy to swap out and mix/match across your 5 free lineups.
Their pricing allows you to pay up for a second stack much like we did with the Angels on the early slate and this time – I am using the Houston Astros against Lance Lynn. Because of the White Sox cheap tags, you almost have money to burn with bats and so locking in guys like Altuve, Bregman and Springer give you high upside bats in an elite environment in Texas.
You do not have to go nearly as cheap at pitcher here on the Main Slate as you can live in the mid $7K range with guys like Drew Smyly and Rick Porcello who pitched well his last simulated start against Washington where he racked up 36 fantasy points with 6 K’s in 7 innings of work. These kinds of 30-40 fantasy point outings could be enough to simply “get by” without any elite arms we simply have to have as we let our bats do the talking.
Good luck today all – let’s keep building that bankroll!