NBA Cheat Sheet

DFS NBA Rookie Profile- Ben Simmons and John Collins.

At this point, you probably know about the Ben Simmons of the world, but maybe you were kind of surprised to see someone play Dillon Brooks or John Collins against you.  This article is designed to get you up to speed on the rookies in the NBA and their DFS impact.

simmy

Let’s start with Ben Simmons.

He leads all rookies in points, rebounds, assists, steals and minutes played.  He also leads all rookies in fantasy points per minute.  He’s legit but probably won’t get a ton better in terms of fp/min this season as his number seemed to stabilize pretty quickly and hasn’t moved around a ton.

Noticeable players impacted on the 76ers:

1) Joel Embiid:  Although he’s still great, his production per minute is down about 3% this season.  Although he seems to be playing better, his usage has gone down slightly as has his fantasy points per minute since Simmons arrival.

2) Robert Covington:  Although not the way you might think, his production is up almost 10% this year.  He’s getting more open looks, and Simmons ability to pass the ball makes Covington’s cutting ability much more effective.

3) Dario Saric:  This poor guy.  He’s nearly 30% worse on a fantasy point per minute basis.   His production is very limited in the role he has on the team right now.  However, in the few games that he started this season, his numbers were way up.  It appears that he needs volume to get going and Simmons addition is Saric’s subtraction.

collins

John Collins- PF Atlanta Hawks.

Selected 19th out of Wake Forest you might not know who this 20-year-old is.  He’s got the second highest fantasy points per minute of any NBA rookie (only behind Simmons).  Just to put in perspective it’s higher than Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith, and Lauri Markkanen.  He has a high motor and plays really fast, which leads to the only downfall in his game thus far:  Foul Trouble.  He’s racked up the highest foul rate per 48 minutes in the NBA and because of this, he hasn’t stayed on the court as much as Atlanta would like.  His good is really good.  In 28 minutes against the Rockets, he had 8 points 12 rebounds 4 blocks & two steals going for 38 on Fanduel.   A week later had picked up 4 fouls in the first half and finished with only 8 Fanduel points in a disappointing 15 minutes of play.

Collins presence doesn’t really affect anyone on the Hawks current roster.  The subtraction of Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap has opened up a lot of opportunities for newer players and right now the two players taking the most advantage are Collins (rookie) and Dennis Schroeder whose overall usage and fp/m are up about 7% this season.

NBA Top Plays by Position – 10/17

The NBA is back and we’ve got you covered!  Here are our top plays by position for tonight’s opening night 2 game slate.

The best value at each position is highlighted in green.

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2017 NBA Free Agents

3 types of Free agents in this article

1) Unrestricted Free Agent – This player can free to sign with any team.
2) Restricted Free Agent – This player can sign an offer sheet with any team, but the team he’s currently signed with has the option to match the offer, giving the original team the “first right of refusal”
3) Player Option – Player has the choice to stay with his current team another year, or become an Unrestricted Free Agent.

Let’s get into who is a free agent in this upcoming season.

Kevin Durant – Player Option
Last Years earnings: $26,540,100
Career Earnings: $135,209,018
Season Stats: 25.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.9 apg

There is no indicator that Durant will go anywhere else besides staying with Golden State, possibly after winning his first championship.

Steph Curry – Unrestricted Free Agent
Last years earnings: $12,112,359
Career Earnings: $56,700,262
Season Stats 25.3 ppg, 6.6 apg

Steph is grossly underpaid considering he’s a 2x nba MVP, and is poised to pick up his second ring. He’s going to get a super max contract this summer for his first big payday.

Gordon Hayward – Player Option
Last year earnings $16,073,140
Career Earnings $57,279,893
Season Stats: 21.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.6 apg

This is the first one that is a little tricky. He could sign with the Jazz, and stay as a middle tier team in the west, or he could make a big splash and sign with the Celtics who could push for the east. He’s become a free agent at the peak time in his career. Staying in Utah will not be cheap.

Blake Griffin – Player Option
Last years earnings $20,093,064
Career Earnings: $96,463,407
Season Stats: 21.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.9 apg

Personally, I think this is the end of lob city. I think Blake leaves and gets a massive payday. The two teams being thrown out there are the Lakers and the Celtics. The Lakers don’t make much sense, as they won’t be good for a long time. Even if they signed George + Blake, and draft ball this team would be a bottom tier playoff team in the west. Not an upgrade with what he already had in LA. The Celtics will be in the middle of all this free agent talk as Danny Ainge has stockpiled 319 picks in the next 4 drafts.

Chris Paul – Player Option
Last years earnings $22,868,827
Career Earnings: $160,388,983
Season stats: 18.1 ppg 9.2 apg 5 rpg

He would have to leave $50-75 million on the table to sign elsewhere, which is why I included career salaries. The only place that is getting mentioned is San Antonio. He’d for sure make the Spurs more interesting, but I dont know if that makes them contenders, but what other options do these guys have? What 1 player on this list can go to a team not named Cleveland or Golden State and become a conference favorite? It would take two of these guys to an already loaded team. Boston with it’s assets is the only team capable of pulling off two of these guys.

Kyle Lowry – Unrestricted Free Agent
Last years earnings $12,000,000
Career Earnings: $64,757,917
Season Stats 22.4 ppg, 7 apg, 4.8 rpg

Lowry had his best year as a pro, and Toronto got smoked in the playoffs. He hasn’t had a big payday yet and should get a good amount of interest in the free agent market. Oddly enough the rumors flying around about Lowry are that he’s interested in reuniting with ex Raps GM Bryan Colangelo who is now the GM in Philadelphia. In North Philadelphia, born and raised, on the playground is where Lowry spent most of his days, and he’s been rumored to be interested in coming back home.

Paul Millsap – Player Option (Has already optioned out)
Last years earnings: $20,072,033
Career Earnings $92,110,037
Season Stats 18.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 3.7 apg

Millsap has said “I want to be here, I think all the talks have been pretty good… It’s something me, my agent and my family have got to sit down and talk about.” They all say this though, and if he really wanted to be there, he could have opted in. He’s one of those guys that continues to overachieve and I’m wondering how much longer he can do it. There is little thought that Millsap will remain a hawk, and they Hawks had a lot of opportunities to trade him over the last few seasons and will likely regret not doing so.

Other notable free agents
Danilo Gallinari – Player option 18.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg
Derrick Rose – unrestricted 18 ppg 4.4 apg, 3.8 rpg
Serge Ibaka – unrestricted 14.8 ppg 6.8 rpg 1.6 bpg
Rudy Gay – unrestricted 18.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg
Jrue Holiday – unrestricted 15.4 ppg, 7.3 apg, 3.9 rpg
George Hill – unrestricted 16.9 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.4 rpg
Otto Porter – restricted 13.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg
Greg Monroe – player option 11.7 ppg 6.6 rpg
Jeff Teague – Unrestricted 15.3 ppg,7.8 apg, 4 rpg

Oldies but goodies
Pau Gasol – player option- 12.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg
Dwyane Wade – 18.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.8 apg
Zach Randolph – unrestricted 14.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg

Boston Celtics are 2 steps away from another championship

whats

The Celtics can’t beat the Cavs in a game series. Lebron is too good, and the Celtics are coming of age earlier than people thought. It might seems disappointing as a Celtic fan to know this is the truth, but if you look back at the beginning of the season and I told you that they’d have the #1 seed in the East and make the conference finals, most of you would have thought that was a pretty good year. There’s one issue here though, if you are a Celtic fan, the conference finals isn’t good enough. Getting to the finals isn’t good enough. It’s a championship or nothing in Boston. Boston is among a few other franchises where this is the truth (Lakers, Cavs, GSW) Currently would be some other teams. This is not Orlando, a franchise that would be happy to make the #8 seed and get swept in the first round and be happy with that. We are talking about the Boston Celtics here, and the expectations are lofty.

So let’s take a realistic look at where the Celtics are, and how they get to another championship.

First, let’s play a game. Take their current roster, and pick any player in the NBA not named Durant or Lebron, and add them to the Celtics current roster. Can that team beat Cleveland and Golden State? My answer is no. So that leaves the Celtics in a spot, where adding one player to their roster will not put them where they need to go. So the obvious trade rumors going around right now of adding Jimmy Butler, or Paul George will not put the Celtics over the top.

What other options are left? How do the Celtics parlay their stock piled picks and assets into a championship. The way I see it, there are one of two options.

Option 1. They wait. They draft Fultz at number 1, then they get a top pick next year (From Brooklyn) and draft Michael Porter Jr. (He’ll be a freshman next year at Missouri, and is being called Baby KD). They get these two players, think about resigning IT2 to a max, or pick up Hayward in free agency. They grow together, and maybe in 3 years they can take out the Cavs, and perhaps one of those egos in Dub City will move on and give the rest of the NBA a chance. They can win a championship in 3-4 years. That’s option one, they wait out Lebron and hope that GSW breaks up.

Option 2. They make two major moves now. This is a two step process, that mortgages the future a little bit. They trade the #1 pick (something they are saying they are going to blown away with for a trade offer) and pick up either Butler or George. Butler is preferable to me. They also sign Gordon Hayward via free agency. They have a small window where they could win a championship in 2017-18. Brad Stevens get’s more out of his players than about any coach in the NBA. He gets his players to buy in, and move the ball well. IT2 could would see less double teams, and his below average defense would be slightly masked by the help defense of Jimmy Butler. You’d have a starting lineup of IT2, Gordon Hayward, Jimmy Butler, Al Horford and a PF by committee. Those are 4 legit all-stars, and could beat GS in it’s current form. The bench would be the best in the NBA, with Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Marcus smart. They’d play fast and hard, and be able to run with any team in the NBA. That’s option two, which doesn’t guarantee a championship but it puts the Celtics a lot closer.

Either way, Boston knows that making the playoffs isn’t enough. This is Boston, they aren’t sticking Conference Championships from their banners. It’s a championship, or nothing.

DRAFTKINGS NBA CHEAT SHEET 1/25/2017

Last night’s DK Perfect lineup

#Draftkings Perfect lineup
Wall 52.75
Wade 49.25
Morris 43.75
Noell 46
Chandler 48.75
Crawford 34.75
Tucker 34.5
Jokic 55.25
Total-365

Point Guard (PG)

Russ Westbrook $12,800–  We project him for 72.3.  3.9% vegas boost and a 6.3% DVP Boost.  Opposing point guards have done 6.3% better against Jrue Holiday in terms of fantasy points per minute.  Russ seems pissed (extra pissed) and should light NO up tonight.  Mike Conley is also a great option on DK tonight.  He projects for 42.1 on a 7.2k salary.

Shooting Guard (SG)

Punt~ –  There is no clear cut option @ SG tonight.  No SG makes more than 25% of my 50 lineups tonight.  Lou Williams has been playing well of late and projects for 33.1 on a 5.8k salary.  Wes Matthews 27 on a 4.6k salary.  I’d be looking to spend down tonight at shooting guard.

Small Forward (SF)

Wes Matthews $4,700–  Dallas is set to score 6% higher tonight than they average when Matthews Plays.  Carmelo is 3.6% worse on defense .  Wes plays minutes and should get 36 tonight.  27 DK points.  Norman Powell is also a very good option today.   Shockingly DK has his price at 3.6k and he should easily cover value tonight if he gets any kindof PT like he did last night (see FD writeup)

Power Forward (PF)

Nerlens Noel 4,300–  Noell is the only player to appear in 100% of lineups on FD and DK tonight.  Lack of options for the 76ers and a depleted price make him a must play for cash games, and likely a must play for tournaments.  He was in all the winning GPP’s on FD and DK last night and it wouldn’t surprise me if he makes it tonight.

Center (C)

Enes Kanter $5,400 – Jeff Van Gundy says Kanter doesn’t play more because he doesn’t play defense.  While this may be true, OKC needs his offense.  Russ looks like he’s on an island too often on the court, and Kanter is a VERY talented offensive player.  Tonight looks to be an excellent matchup for him, especially if he gets matched up with Terrence Jones.  TJ is by far one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Kanter should cause all kindof matchup problems for the pelicans tonight with or without AD on the floor.

FANDUEL NBA CHEAT SHEET 1/25/2017

nba125

Quick Screen shot of the games you want to target tonight.

Point Guard (PG)

Damian Lillard $8,300–  115.5 vegas total.  6.5% above his season average.  10% DVP boost against the Lakers.  His price is as low as itll ever get at 8.3k.  The downside is his last 10 game fantasy point per minute which is 1.03 compared to 1.12 on the season, which is factored into this projection.  We project LiLLARD to get 43.1 on FD today.

Shooting Guard (SG)

Norman Powell- $3,500- We wrote up Powell yesterday and he logged 39 minutes.  He scored 16 + 4 rebounds and 2 assists 1 block and 2 steals scoring 29.8 on FD last night.  He’s 3.5k again and Derozan is not going to play.  It won’t get any easier or chalkier than Powell tonight.

Small Forward (SF)

Jimmy Butler $9,500–  This isn’t anything special.  There’s no news, but I could see wade sitting out tonight after a big performance last night and playing on a b2b.  This is just a Fantasy poitns per minute (1.14) Times minutes played (38.1) times a slightly +EV DVP with the Hawks (+4.5%) totaling a projection of 45.3.  With several nice punt plays today you’ve got to spend your money somewhere on FD and Butler is a safe option at SF.

Power Forward (PF)

Nerlens Noell $4,100–  Perhaps slightly more boring than Powell will be Noell today.  4.1k.   He logged 29 minutes last night.  No Okafor, no Embiid.  Look for Noell to play similar minutes.  Phili will rotate between Saric, Ersan, Noell & Richaun Holmes to cover PF and C tonight.  The minutes have to go somewhere.  Phili is actually 7-3 in the last 10 games.

Center (C)

Dwight Howard- $7,000 –  I dont remember the last time I rostered D12 on FD.  There isn’t anything special with dwight tonight.  7k tag. 33.1 average. Neutral Vegas line, and a fairly Neutral match up against Robin Lopez.  He simply projects for 35 fantasy points tonight and seems to fit in nicely on FD tonight making 25/50 lineups i’ve run at the time of this writing.  Other Centers making rosters tonight on FD- Plumlee, Monroe, Whiteside, Horford.

FANDUEL NBA CHEAT SHEET 1/24/2017

Boston 109.5 Phoenix 108.25 Washington 108 vegas totals tonight 6 game NBA slate

Point Guard (PG)

Elfrid Payton $6,700–  He’s a lock on both sites tonight.  Good DVP Matchup against MCW, tons of playing time and his usage rate has been sky high the last ten games (mostly due to injury). I dont think there will be a chalkier player tonight in DFS.

Shooting Guard (SG)

Bradley Beal- $6,700, D Wade $7,000 –  I wrote up Beal on DK as well so all the metrics apply there.  Wade and the Bulls are set to score 4% higher than games Wade has started this year.  Watson is 6’2 175 and Wade is 6’4 220.  Wade should have his way with him tonight.

Small Forward (SF)

Joe Ingles $4,200–  Kindof a punt play as long as Hood remains out.  He’s got a 5% vegas boost, and a 5% DVP boost with Gary Harris covering him.  He’s set to play around 31 minutes and should easily cover his 4.2k salary.  He currently projects for 24.  I don’t think he’ll be a great GPP play, but is a solid punt play on FD tonight for cash games.

Power Forward (PF)

Markieff Morris $6,400–  I wrote up Morris on DK too.  Same metrics.  Huge PT, high scoring low spread game.  Amir will be guarding him and he’s got a very juicy DVP.  His game log looks great and his price hasn’t caught up yet.  I’m fairly certain even though it’s 8 hours til tip, he’ll be in the vast majority of my line ups tonight.

Center (C)

KAT – $10,500 – Gobert is really the #1 option tonight- he’s written up on DK.  KAT is my #2 option and currently in my #3 optimal lineup.  He’s got the highest projection on the night for me currently.  3.3% vegas boost, plus a 3.8% DVP boost verse Tyson Chandler (Defensive player of the year **JOKE**).   He’s averaging 1.27 fp/min on FD in the last 10 and 1.23 on the season.  This is a 1.5 point spread and a 215 point over under, the second best game of the night on paper.

DraftKings NBA Cheat Sheet 1/24/2017

6 game NBA Slate.  Boston the highest scoring team- 109

Point Guard (PG)

Elfrid Payton $6,400 –  Shockingly DK’s salary hasn’t caught up to Payton yet.  He’s getting about 10 more minutes per game since the Magic are down several guards including Jodie Meeks and Evan Fournier.  He’s averaged 38 mpg the last two while putting up 40 and 46 DK points in the last two.  He’s done 10% better FP/min in the last 10 games and MCW is set to cover him for Chicago who is almost 8% worse on defense.

Shooting Guard (SG)

Bradley Beal $ -$6,700 Beal was a GTD with a foot injury and managed only 32 minutes last night but still put up 32 FP against a sub optimal match up @ Charlotte.  Tonight he gets to fade Avery Bradley and will be guarded by Marcus Smart.  Smart gets a lot of steals and puts up decent defensive numbers but he’s undersized and other SG’s are doing 6% better when he starts this season.  This game is a 1 point spread and the highest total of the night.

Small Forward (SF) 

Norman Powell $3,400 – Demarr Derozan is out tonight.  Ross and Powell will likely get the biggest increase.  Powell is near min priced and set to play 27 minutes.  The matchup isn’t great, it’s actually not even good as they Raptors host the Spurs, but Powell should be able to cover his salary on DK tonight and is a nice punt option.

Power Forward (PF)

Markieff Morris $6,300 –  Good close high scoring game and a good match up for Morris.  I just watched game tape and am fairly confident that Amir will start off on Morris and that’s a VERY nice DVP matchup for Markieff.  He’s going to play big minutes and his FP/min is 1.02 in the last ten verse .87 on the season.  He’s in a good spot to easily cover salary.

Center (C)

Rudy Gobert – $7,300 –  Gobert is currently in 50/50 lineups Ive run on DK.  Jazz set to score 5% higher than games Gobert has played in this season.  Jokic has given up 4.2% more fantasy points to opposing centers.  He’s been nearly 10% better in his last ten games.   He got only 9 rebounds last night which snapped a 30 game streak of 10+ rebounds.  I’m guessing he bounces back tonight.

Fanduel NBA Cheat Sheet 12/30/2016

Point Guard (PG)

TJ McConnell $3,800– Sergio Rodrgiguez will not play tonight and neither will Gerald Henderson.  McConnell’s price has gone down about $600 in recent time mostly due to lack of playing time, but tonight he should be a lot of run tonight.  Last time Rodriguez sat out TJ played 37 minutes and nearly recorded a triple double against Detroit going for 40.5 fantasy points.  His price, and suggested playing time make him a very solid punt play on FD tonight.

Shooting Guard (SG)

Langston Galloway $3,800 – Harden is 11.1k and projects for 52 and is the top expensive option at SG, but I like a punt here at SG as well.  Galloway plays his former team in the knicks and has averaged nearly 30 minutes a game in the last three for the Pelicans.  He’s reached over 300 value in 2 of those 3 games.  The Pelicans project to score 108.75 points a 6.16% increase from the games Galloway has played in so far this season.

Small Forward (SF)

Carmelo Anthony $7,500 – Let’s hope that Carmelo isn’t suspended, and also doesn’t hit someone in the face tonight.  Barring one of these things happening the Knicks are set to play a fairly up-tempo game and CA should have no problem having his way tonight.  His price is slightly deflated, his fp/min are up in the last ten games about 3% and he has the highest floor on the team.  He’s our top option at SF tonight.

Power Forward (PF)

Anthony Davis $11,100 – Ride or die on AD tonight.  Same as Galloway, Davis gets about a 5% vegas boost tonight as well with what looks to be a 3% positional advantage against the Knicks.  With solid punt plays all over tonight this is the #1 spot ill be spending my money on FD (#2 will be Giannis)

Center (C)

Joel Embiid (GOAT) C- $6,800 –  Rested, and no one on Denver’s front court that can begin to cover him (Wilson Chandler is slated to start at PF and he’s 6’8 and giving up nearly 30 pounds to GOAT).  Chandler has given up 4.7% more fantasy points per minute than the opposing players he’s covered have averaged coming in (weighted).